Martin Okolikj

• Okolikj, Martin; Hooghe, Marc & Lewis-Beck, Michael (2026). The Compleat Economic Voter in Belgium Channels of Accountability in a Complex Multilevel Government System. Journal of Politics. ISSN 0022-3816. doi: 10.1086/735633. Full text in Research Archive
• Okolikj, Martin & Lewis-Beck, Michael (2025). Economic matters: the 2024 European parliament elections. Quaderni dell'Osservatorio elettorale (QOE). ISSN 2724-4679. 88(1), p. 49–60. doi: 10.36253/qoe-17327. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Using European Election Study (EES) surveys (2004 to 2024) from the six founding members (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands) of the European Union, we examine how economic perceptions affect vote choice in the European Parliament (EP) elections. Beginning with the second-order election thesis, i.e., voter behavior in EP elections is influenced by national politics, we investigate alternative economic voting hypotheses, culminating with a focus on the 2024 contests. We find the extant economic vote has remained stable, in the face of shocks such as the Great Recession or Brexit. Further, the economic perception effects appear competitive with the effects of left-right ideology and party identification. Economic voting remains a pivot for vote choice in EP elections, even in the face of emergent supra-national challenges, and shows no signs of diminishing as a result of the 2024 EP contests.

• Girard, Lisa-Christine; Okolikj, Martin; Hysing, Mari & Sivertsen, Børge (2025). Lifetime prevalence of mental disorders and the costs for civic engagement among college and university students: Insights from the Norwegian SHoT2022 cohort. SSM - Mental Health (SSM-MH). 8. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmmh.2025.100519. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The high prevalence of mental disorders has become a globally pervasive social issue resulting in its placement as among one of the leading causes of the global burden of disease. Noteworthy, prevalence estimates of college and university students affected by mental disorders are, in particular, exceedingly high. This may have important consequences for early habit formation of civic engagement given the developmental period (e.g., first time eligible voters). Using data from the Students’ Health and Wellbeing study (SHoT2022) – a nationally representative survey of college/university students across Norway – we examine how lifetime prevalence of common mental disorders (i.e., major depressive episode, generalized anxiety disorder, and social anxiety disorder) impact upon politically-oriented (i.e., voting) and community-oriented participatory activities (e.g., sports, cultural clubs, student-democracy, special interest groups, professional associations or off campus volunteering). Our findings suggest nuanced associations, whereby students with a lifetime prevalence of social anxiety disorder are less likely to turnout to vote (average marginal effects [AMEs] are 2.5 percentage points lower for both the national and municipal level elections). Meanwhile, students with either generalized anxiety disorder or social anxiety disorder are at risk of reduced participation in community-oriented activities (AMEs range from −1.5 to −2.3 percentage point across activities), and students with major depressive episode evidence both positive (participation in special interest groups equal to 2 percentage points) and negative (participation in sports equal to −1.5 percentage points) associations. Our results highlight the impact that lifetime prevalence of mental disorders, in particular anxiety disorders, may have on reducing mobilization into civic engagement (i.e., political- and community-oriented participatory activities) in college/university students.

• Okolikj, Martin & Girard, Lisa-Christine (2025). Longitudinal co-occurrence of adolescent mental health difficulties and democratic citizenship in early adulthood. Political Psychology. ISSN 0162-895X. 46(5), p. 1336–1363. doi: 10.1111/pops.13083. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Little is known about the link between childhood and adolescent mental health (MH) difficulties and political outcomes in adulthood. This represents an important knowledge gap in understanding early individual-level factors for future political outcomes. Using the Growing up in Ireland cohort, which follows 8568 children from 9 to 20 years, we examine how different MH difficulties, and their co-occurrence, are associated with various political outcomes. The results show childhood/adolescent MH difficulties are important predictors of political outcomes at age 20. Adolescents with chronic co-occurring MH difficulties starting in childhood report a lower interest in politics, lower trust in politicians, are less likely to register to vote, but if voting, are more likely to vote for an antiestablishment party. Adolescents with chronic emotional MH difficulties starting in childhood also report lower trust in politicians, are less likely to register to vote, and report a higher likelihood of voting for an antiestablishment party when voting. Additionally, they evidence lower levels of external political efficacy.

• Hooghe, Marc; Okolikj, Martin & Oser, Jennifer (2024). Does party identification still matter for political efficacy? A cross-national assessment, 1996–2016. Contemporary Politics. ISSN 1356-9775. doi: 10.1080/13569775.2024.2329396. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It has been argued that party membership has declined in most liberal democracies over the past several decades, and the remaining party members are even more committed to party goals and policies. If partisanship becomes more of an elite phenomenon, it might also become a very effective tool to exert political influence. We use Comparative Study of Electoral Systems data (1996–2016) to investigate the magnitude of the association over time between party identification and political efficacy. The results support our main hypotheses that party identification remains strongly associated with political efficacy throughout the observation period, and that the magnitude of this association has increased in recent years. Thus, despite attention in the literature to stagnating or declining party identification, we provide new evidence that supports expectations in the literature of continued and even increased importance of the relationship between party identification and political efficacy.

• Girard, Lisa-Christine & Okolikj, Martin (2023). Trajectories of Mental Health Problems in Childhood and Adult Voting Behaviour: Evidence from the 1970s British Cohort Study. Political Behavior. ISSN 0190-9320. doi: 10.1007/s11109-022-09852-9. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The link between childhood mental health difficulties such as conduct problems and adult political abstention has been overlooked despite early mental health difficulties potentially resulting in political self-marginalisation. Using the1970s British Cohort Study, we estimate developmental trajectories of conduct problems (i.e., from 5 to 16 years). Logistic regression, linear probability models, and propensity score matching were then conducted to test the association between trajectory group membership and voter turnout at 30, 42, and 46 years of age. Three distinct trajectories of conduct problems were identified: a normative (n = 11,871; reference group), moderate-chronic (n = 3433), and elevated-chronic (n = 250) group. Results revealed an association between conduct problems and decreased turnout. In particular the elevated-chronic group had a decreased odds of voting of 52.2%, 52.0%, and 45.7%, as compared to the normative group at 30, 42, and 46 years respectively. The moderate-chronic group had a decreased odds of voting of 24.7% as compared to the normative group at age 30 only. Matched results and linear probability models substantiated findings, suggesting (1) the importance of considering childhood factors when examining antecedents of lifelong voting behaviour, and (2) the political self-marginalisation of people with chronic childhood conduct problems more than 3 decades later.

• Okolikj, Martin (2023). Economic voting. In Grasso, Maria & Giugni, Marco (Ed.), Elgar Encyclopedia of Political Sociology. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781803921228. p. 138–141. doi: 10.4337/9781803921235.00041. Full text in Research Archive
• Okolikj, Martin & Hooghe, Marc (2022). Is there a partisan bias in the perception of the state of the economy? A comparative investigation of European countries, 2002–2016. International Political Science Review. ISSN 0192-5121. 43(2), p. 240–258. doi: 10.1177/0192512120915907. Full text in Research Archive
• Okolikj, Martin; Goubin, Silke; Stiers, Dieter & Hooghe, Marc (2022). Trust in political parties and ideological proximity voting in Europe: the role of trust in political parties as a heuristic mechanism. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. ISSN 1745-7289. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2022.2113088. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Previous studies have investigated to what extent voters can achieve proximity between their preferences and the positions of the party they vote for. Combining data from the European Social Survey and the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, we investigate whether trust in political parties increases ideological proximity voting. We argue that voters use their level of trust in parties as a heuristic mechanism. First, trust can increase proximity voting because citizens need to trust that political parties will take voters’ policy preferences into account when in government. Second, we examine whether low-trusting voters tend to cast a protest vote, and do not engage in ideological proximity voting. We test this assumption regarding three determinants of the vote choice: general left-right ideology views, preferences for income redistribution, and anti-immigrant sentiments. We find that ideological proximity voting is indeed moderated by trust: those who trust political parties are more likely to cast a vote based on their policy preferences, while those who distrust tend to vote for protest parties. Nevertheless, also among protest voters, trust is conducive for higher levels of proximity voting.

• Quinlan, Stephen & Okolikj, Martin (2022). Patrimonial economic voting: a cross-national analysis of asset ownership and the vote. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. ISSN 1745-7289. 32(1), p. 193–213. doi: 10.1080/17457289.2019.1655758. Full text in Research Archive
• Okolikj, Martin; Quinlan, Stephen & Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (2022). Macroeconomy and macropartisanship: Economic conditions and party identification. Politics & Policy. ISSN 1555-5623. 50(4), p. 700–719. doi: 10.1111/polp.12473. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  “It's the economy stupid”—is the phrase that captures the ubiquity of economics in determining election outcomes. Nevertheless, while several studies support the premise of economic voting, a constant critique of valence economic models is that partisan bias contaminates voters' economic perceptions, thus invaliding any independent effect of economic opinions on the vote. Here, we test whether partisanship may itself be endogenous to the macroeconomy. Aggregating data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), supplemented with European Social Survey (ESS) data to bolster the time analysis, we focus on macropartisanship and find a drop-off of party identifiers for governing parties in tandem with the economic downturn, specifically from rising unemployment. More generally, macropartisanship responds to economic conditions, suggesting that the endogeneity concern between party attachment and valence economic conditions is not unidirectional. That is, while economic perceptions may be influenced by party identification, party identification can be influenced by economic conditions.

• Okolikj, Martin & Hooghe, Marc (2022). Political congruence between adolescence and their parents: evidence from a quasi-experimental local elections in the city of Ghent (Belgium). Acta Politica. ISSN 0001-6810. 58. doi: 10.1057/s41269-022-00236-9. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Lowering the voting age is often criticized due to the alleged political immaturity of young voters, which is considered as negative for the quality of democracy. We adopt a unique approach to this issue by measuring political congruence between adolescents and their parents to ascertain whether ideological views and salient positional issues, such as attitudes on immigration, differ between different age groups in adolescence. Using a household survey in the city of Ghent (Belgium), first we compare political ideologies and attitudes toward immigration for those of age between 15 and 19, and their parents. We find that adolescent children tend to resemble the political ideologies of their parents, and they also tend to have similar attitudes about immigration. Second, we find that ideological resemblance is even higher among adolescents that regularly talk about politics with their parents. Finally, we do not find evidence that political congruence with parents differs by the age of adolescent children or their right to vote. Therefore, we conclude that political ideology and positional views are formed in an early stage of adolescence, i.e., before the age of 15. Our findings have relevance for the debate about lowering the voting age, as it points to already clearly formed ideological views and political attitudes at early stages of adolescent life.

• Okolikj, Martin & Quinlan, Stephen (2021). The Compleat German Economic Voter: New Pathways in Patrimonial and Positional Economic Voting. German Politics. ISSN 0964-4008. 30(4), p. 503–522. doi: 10.1080/09644008.2020.1750006. Full text in Research Archive
• Hooghe, Marc & Okolikj, Martin (2020). The long-term effects of the economic crisis on political trust in Europe: Is there a negativity bias in the relation between economic performance and political support? Comparative European Politics. ISSN 1472-4790. doi: 10.1057/s41295-020-00214-5. Full text in Research Archive
• Goubin, Silke; Hooghe, Marc; Okolikj, Martin & Stiers, Dieter (2020). Economic inequality and electoral accountability: inequality and differences in economic voting across Western democracies. Comparative European Politics. ISSN 1472-4790. doi: 10.1057/s41295-020-00209-2. Full text in Research Archive
• Quinlan, Stephen & Okolikj, Martin (2020). Exploring the neglected dimension of the economic vote: a global analysis of the positional economics thesis. European Political Science Review. ISSN 1755-7739. doi: 10.1017/S1755773920000028. Full text in Research Archive
• Quinlan, Stephen & Okolikj, Martin (2017). The decline of a dominant political monolith: understanding Fianna Fáil’s vote 1987–2016. Irish Political Studies. ISSN 0790-7184. doi: 10.1080/07907184.2016.1272585. Full text in Research Archive
• Bubbico, Antonio; Elkink, Johan A. & Okolikj, Martin (2017). Quality of government and regional competition: A spatial analysis of subnational regions in the European Union. European Journal of Political Research. ISSN 0304-4130. doi: 10.1111/1475-6765.12211. Full text in Research Archive
• Okolikj, Martin & Quinlan, Stephen (2016). Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections. Politics and Governance. doi: 10.17645/pag.v4i1.458. Full text in Research Archive
• Quinlan, Stephen & Okolikj, Martin (2016). This time it's different … but not really! The 2014 European Parliament elections in Ireland. Irish Political Studies. ISSN 0790-7184. doi: 10.1080/07907184.2016.1151415. Full text in Research Archive

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• Greet, Louw; Stiers, Dieter; Okolikj, Martin; Hooghe, Marc & Goubin, Silke (2020). De Gent studie. In Hooghe, Marc & Stiers, Dieter (Ed.), Kiezen op 16 Het Experiment in Gent. Acco. ISSN 9789463799140. p. 13–23. Full text in Research Archive
• Stiers, Dieter; Hooghe, Marc; Goubin, Silke; Greet, Louw & Okolikj, Martin (2020). Inleiding Waarom stemrecht op 16? In Hooghe, Marc & Stiers, Dieter (Ed.), Kiezen op 16 Het Experiment in Gent. Acco. ISSN 9789463799140. p. 9–12. Full text in Research Archive
• Hooghe, Marc; Stiers, Dieter; Okolikj, Martin; Goubin, Silke & Greet, Louw (2020). Besluit. In Hooghe, Marc & Stiers, Dieter (Ed.), Kiezen op 16 Het Experiment in Gent. Acco. ISSN 9789463799140. p. 189–193. Full text in Research Archive
• Okolikj, Martin & Hooghe, Marc (2020). Politieke opvattingen van jongeren en ouders vergeleken. In Hooghe, Marc & Stiers, Dieter (Ed.), Kiezen op 16 Het Experiment in Gent. Acco. ISSN 9789463799140. p. 83–99. Full text in Research Archive
• Stegmaier, Mary & Okolikj, Martin (2020). North Macedonia votes on July 15. Here’s what you need to know. The Washington Post. Full text in Research Archive

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